Why Consensus 2018 Failed to Lead to a Consensus on Crypto

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Last month in New York one of the largest and most significant events of this year took place in the blockbuster industry, the conference Consensus 2018, which brought together the most influential representatives of the crypto-currency community, regulators, and entrepreneurs from around the world.

As part of the event, many block-start-ups concluded the most important agreements, presented their developments and told about plans for the future. It was not without curious moments like dummy "Lamborghini", bankers' protests and Snoop Dog performances, which only made the conference even more discussed.

Consensus brought forth the so-called bitcoin-maximalists and developers of various altcoins. Dozens of disputes took place, as the event gathered an extremely diverse audience whose representatives agree only on one thing, the technology of the distributed registry is already changing the world: the blockade broke into finance, business, management and even the public sector.

It is worth emphasizing that this year the conference set a new attendance record, about 8,500 guests, which undoubtedly indicates a growing interest in the innovative industry.

Nevertheless, it is impossible not to notice that the Consensus was missing one of the leading figures in the industry, the founder of Ethereum (ETH), Vitalik Buterin. At the end of last month, he announced a boycott of the event in protest against the journalistic activities of the publication CoinDesk, which, in his opinion, violated a number of important standards.

His example was followed by the co-founder of Ethereum (ETH) and the creator of the competitive platform Cardano (ADA), Charles Hoskinson, who, like Buterin, counted $ 3,000 per ticket for an unreasonably high price. He noted that the conference model is "distorted" and that the MITAP and YouTube conferences are much more effective.

It is noteworthy that in response to the tweet of Professor Cornell University and the creator of the Bitcoin NG protocol, Emin Gun Sierer, about the feasibility of such a large-scale conference, Buterin wrote that his team should hold the EDCON event monthly in different countries. Gun Sierer himself stressed that he liked the idea of the founder of Ethereum, and emphasized the need to combine such events with academic workshops.

While it is not clear how serious is Buterin's intention to implement what has been said, it can be assumed that the new format of EDCON conferences can seriously compete with Consensus from CoinDesk, despite the established image of the biggest event of the year.

In addition to all the vicissitudes around the event and the immediate events that took place at the conference, most so-called retail investors waited for Consensus for one reason, the potential growth of digital currencies.

On the eve of the event, the well-known optimistic bitcoin and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, said that holding the conference would have a positive effect on the dynamics of the crypto-currency market. This assumption he made on the basis of the experience of previous years.

Fundstrat Position

Lee stressed that in the past, cryptocurrencies showed growth in the range between 10% and 70% after the Consensus, and the event could bring bitcoin to a mark of $ 15,000. However, the market behaved quite the opposite way, which caused disappointment of many retail investors and the bewilderment of Tom Lee himself. The main reason why his expert forecast was not justified is the regulatory uncertainty, he believes.

Nevertheless, the original forecast of Lee and other analysts in the context of the rally after the Consensus is a clear example of the "turkey problem", and their exculpatory arguments are retrospective and do not bear any semantic value.

So, the butcher fattens the turkey before Thanksgiving. With every day of feeding, the turkey itself is becoming increasingly convinced that the butcher will continue to look after her. From the standpoint of a turkey, every new day only confirms the fact that butchers like turkeys, but on the 101st day, they suddenly cut off her head. Her problem is that she builds predictions based on past events, while not knowing about Thanksgiving Day.

The same rule works with price forecasts in the run-up to Consensus 2018, which were based on the experience of previous years, without taking into account other factors. Moreover, most of the so-called analysts call the predicted price of bitcoin what is called "from the ceiling", because they know that by the end of the year hardly anyone will remember that they were wrong, which will allow them to make similar forecasts in the next year.

As a result, Tom Lee dubbed the lack of growth as "disappointing," but in general, in his opinion, the crypto-currencies "became stronger". What exactly was meant by "stronger" is not entirely clear, but it was necessary for him to comment on the situation since not all have forgotten about this "forecast."

Without Consensus 

Returning to the question of why the consensus on the market was not reached during the conference, and the Bitcoin (BTC) course was on the brink of a return to the global downstream, it is worth emphasizing that there was nothing fundamental at the event, despite the abundance of events.

As CIO of BlockTower Capital hedge fund Ari Paul noted, the developers make up only 5% of the total number of participants. They, in his opinion, "are building the future and deserve more recognition than other members of the community."

In other words, the Consensus is a kind of social event, the visit of which is simply a prestige for many, and not an opportunity to improve the industry.

So, some statements could locally push the course of certain altcoins, but in general, Consensus did not bring a fundamental positive effect associated with the progress of distributed registry technology or with new breakthroughs in solving the problem of scaling public lockers.

Growth forecasts were based on an incorrect belief in the value of statistics from previous years, which put many retail investors in a turkey position.

Moreover, such giants as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Intercontinental Exchange came to the market, which already speaks about the structural change of the situation and about the cardinal difference with the past years. When most of the retail investors make the mistake of a turkey, it's silly to expect that big whales will not take advantage of this. Using the hope of people based on incorrect forecasts, they will always put on the market. Why? Because they can and want to earn as much as others.

Thus, the big players and the centralization of the mining business are Thanksgiving Day for all turkeys who expect the rally only on the grounds that such rallies were in the past. In addition, it is worth considering that we do not see the full picture and are forced to make decisions in conditions of limited awareness.

So, with relative accuracy, we can estimate motion by watchmakers, however, the longer the time period of forecasting, the less accurate the forecast will be. Given unforeseen circumstances and Thanksgiving days, long-term forecasts of the bitcoin course have absolutely no value. This is the reason why the consensus in the market for cryptocurrency has not been reached. Whoever said that this was supposed to happen?

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Disclosure:

I have received no additional compensation other than the Ethereum that Hade Technologies pays to produce Exclusive content

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